Augur -Updated details+ New devlopment update
Welcome to the future of forecasting
Augur combines the magic of prediction markets with the power of a decentralized network to create a stunningly accurate forecasting tool - and the chance for real money trading profits
Get rewarded for your knowledge and insight
Augur is a prediction market platform that rewards you for correctly predicting future real-world events.
Predict the outcome of real-world events
You make your predictions by trading virtual shares in the outcome of events happening in the real-world. If you think Hillary Clinton will be elected President, the Yankees will win the World Series, or Leonardo DiCaprio will win another Oscar, then you'll buy shares in those outcomes. If you buy shares in the correct outcomes, you'll win real money profits.
Earn real-money trading profits
The prices of the shares you trade in any event adds up to one dollar - so if you buy a share at even odds it will cost you 50 cents. If you end up being right, you'll get back one dollar for every share you bought. If you're wrong then you've lost the money used to buy your shares. As with any market, the price of shares fluctuates over time. As more people buy shares in an outcome, the price of that outcome will rise while the price of other outcomes will fall. This gives you further opportunities for profit - by buying low and selling high, before the final result of the market is known.
Stunningly accurate forecasts on any topic
Augur's prediction markets provide powerful predictive data - you can think of the current market price of any share in any market as an estimate of the probability of that outcome actually occurring in the real world. For example, a share priced at 64 cents has a 64% probability of happening. The accuracy of prediction markets rests in the idea of the "The Wisdom of the Crowd". This states that the average prediction made by a group is superior to that made by any of the individuals in that group. Markets are the perfect way to aggregate this collective wisdom - which is made up of all the information, analysis and opinion held by members of the group. With these individuals buying and selling shares in the outcome of real-world events, based on their personal knowledge and opinion, the market prices reach an equilibrium that reflect the opinion of the entire group. Prediction markets have proven to be more accurate at forecasting the future than individual experts, surveys or traditional opinion polling. They provide real-time predictive data and are traded using real money - which incentivises market participants to reveal what they think will happen, rather than what they hope will happen. Traders are putting their money where their mouths are.
Decentralization: Augur's secret weapon
Existing on a decentralized network gives Augur a unique edge over other prediction markets.
No central servers
Augur is a decentralized platform built on the Ethereum blockchain - which means no central servers that can be switched off.
Create your own markets
Using Augur, anyone, anywhere in the world can quickly and easily create a prediction market asking a question about anything. As a market creator you'll provide some initial funding for the market and in return receive half of all trading fees collected during the lifetime of that market.
Augur's fees are set by users, and are vastly lower compared to traditional trading and betting platforms.
In centralized markets, one person determines the final market outcomes - which means there can be mistakes or outright manipulation. With Augur, we'll have thousands reporting on market outcomes using a one-of-a kind consensus based system and a unique token called REPutation. As a reporter, you'll report on events every two months and, in return, receive half of all fees in the system multiplied by the percent of REP you own. The full scoop on REP
Safe, automated payments
All funds are stored in smart contracts - eliminating counterparty risk and allowing fast, automated payments to winning traders. Depositing and withdrawing funds are also completely automated using the blockchain. With no human intervention required, there's no human error.
Try Augur now...for free!
After months of development we are pleased to release the beta version of Augur. This early version showcases the core features of our prediction market platform. We're still actively developing the software and working on design, but we'd love to hear your honest and unfiltered feedback about our work so far
React / CSS & LESS / Node / DevOps / Bitcoin & Ethereum Augur is an open source decentralized prediction market built on Ethereum. By combining the magic of prediction markets with the power of a decentralized network, we’re able to create a stunningly accurate forecasting tool that can be used by anyone in the world. We’re looking for somebody who has built web trading interfaces before, ideally for a large scale site. We want you to be fluent in React, and have an intuitive understanding of how trading should work. It's a huge bonus if you’ve previously lead a small team of people doing just that. You’d be contributing to Augur and AURC, in which we encourage you to explore initially if interested. Please leave us your LinkedIn, GitHub, and one recommendation (with explanation) for how to improve Augur.
Augur Development Update – Nov 16
This past week has been focused on improving the new market UI and polishing up functionality related to reporting. We’re starting to expand our internal testing group, and have been receiving valuable feedback from everyone involved.
If you want to help test upcoming features or stay up to date on daily testing, please join us on Slack in the channel #betatesting.
We have our classic Augur shirts for sale on Bitcoin.com now, too!
Augur shirts are now available on the BitcoinCom store!
November 15, 2016
- Removed checkboxes from sidebar.
- Fixed market selector isExpired property calculation, distinguished it from isOpen.
- Added result (reported outcome / proportion correct) object field to market(s) selectors.
- For Airbitz logins, private keys are now stored in an Airbitz wallet instead of using the Airbitz dataKey as the Ethereum private key. (This change only affects Airbitz accounts.)
November 14, 2016
- Scalar market order books now display “truncated” share quantities for very large quantities of millishares and microshares.
- Market preview tooltips now display non-truncated values for very large numbers.
- Categorical outcomes are now correctly rounded to the nearest integer (on eventResolution contract).
- Added check to make sure event is on the specified branch before penalizing (on consensus contract). Resolves the edge case of penalization of a reporter who is otherwise caught up when there are no events in a period.
- Added reporting proportion correct value to getMarketInfo array (on compositeGetters contract).
- Added event outcome to getMarketsInfo (on compositeGetters contract).
- Fixed a bug causing some reports to throw hash-mismatching errors during the reveal-report action.
- Failed reveal report actions now render correctly on the transactions page.
- Fixed a bug that sometimes caused the login button to be incorrectly disabled.
November 13, 2016
- Finished refactoring and thoroughly unit testing reporting timing methods (checkPeriod et al) in augur.js.
- Fixed/updated augur.js reporting-sequence integration tests to work properly with the refactored reporting tools.
- Fixed error on Reporting detail page.
- Fixed warning on trade (market detail) page.
November 12, 2016
- Added rescaling logic for categorical and scalar reports to augur.js fixReport and (new) unfixReport methods, and updated event / report loaders in UI accordingly.
- Full reset of network 9000 (test chain) contracts.
November 11, 2016
- Merged augur-core develop into master branch.
- Changed tick size to tenths on trade page.
- Added highlighting of the matching side of the order book when user clicks buy/sell.
- Fixed abnormally high CPU utilization on markets listing page.
- The trade page for scalar markets now properly displays the unit selection drop-down menu. The share amounts on the page are updated automatically when a new unit is chosen.
- Fixed scalar market labels (no longer improperly labeled as categorical markets).
November 10, 2016
- Added the first big batch of trading unit tests for the main augur repository.
- Your reported outcome is now displayed in bright red text when you have committed, but not yet revealed, your report. It displays a tooltip telling you that you must remember to log back in to reveal your report. (After the report is revealed, the reported outcome text reverts to a normal color.)
- Began refactoring the monolithic checkPeriod method in augur.js. Set up mocks and stubs for unit testing.
November 9, 2016
- Fixed the My Reports (Portfolio) display.
- Added reporting cycle information (cycle number and how many cycles ago) to the My Reports display.
- Added a red thumbs-down “unethical” icon to the My Reports display. This appears by your reported outcome if you report a market unethical.
- Removed the fees collected column from My Reports, since this information is not yet accessible.
- Fixed the Ask / Ask Q. headers (switched positions).
- Improved load-events-with-submitted-report workflow: fixed penalize log-lookup, load event/report data from the reports state instead of the blockchain (where possible), and removed not-yet-implemented backend function calls.
- Added minValue, maxValue, and numOutcomes to the getMarketsInfo (compositeGetters contract) return array, and updated augur.js bindings. augur.js now assigns a type field (scalar, binary, categorical) to each market object in getMarketsInfo.
Check back next week for our latest developments!
– The Augur Teamhttps
Augur Development Update: Dec-2016
The primary focus of the past two weeks has been unit testing, reporting, and various UI clean up. The beta is now running on Ropsten testnet, while the private instance still runs on our own chain. The technical updates below outline the day to day changes pushed to Augur. We’re working on merging Augur with AURC, which will be a great productivity increase for development when completed.We will be expanding our controlled testing group soon – if you’d like to join, drop us a line on Slack!The grey and purple classic Augur hoodies are now for sale on Bitcoin.com
The @AugurProject hoodie is now available in grey and purple on the @BTCTN store! #augur https://store.bitcoin.com/products/augur-hoodie …
November 30, 2016
- Added human-readable “label” and “description” fields to static API data. Added “label maker” to augur-core API maker script.
- The following things are now included in the auto-generated transaction display: formatted label, description, timestamp, and gas fees.
- Added a “no-relay” list to the UI, which has the names of methods for which the transaction relay should not be triggered. This will allow the old manually-constructed “transactions” to peacefully coexist with relay-generated transactions in the transaction display.
November 29, 2016
- Attached the initial transact payload and full Ethereum network response data objects to the txRelay callback argument in ethrpc.
- Percentage reporting on correct outcome is now only displayed for binary markets, since we do not presently have access to this information for categorical and scalar markets.
- Fixed an array indexing error in getMarketInfo function on the compositeGetters contract.
- Reports are now revealed in parallel (up to 5 at a time).
- Registered sell error codes for the shortAsk method. This fixes the bug where a short ask order would correctly fail (due to orders being “crossed”), but the transactions display would incorrectly show the short ask as successful.
- Removed deprecated callbacks from augur.js.
- Fixed augur.js sendEther method to correctly include an onFailed callback.
November 28, 2016
- The checkPeriod function now only looks up chain data on initial loading and when the reporting cycle phase changes.
- Removed code related to the market data refresh timer, which is no longer used.
- Added a generic hook for transaction callbacks to ethrpc. The UI (or augur.js) can now register a transaction relay function that is automatically called any time any transaction is sent, succeeds, or fails.
November 27, 2016
- Added answer-in-description reporting test markets for first 4 cycles on root branch. (Example description: “Binary Reporting Test Market (Cycle 1): correct answer is Yes”)
- New testnet (Ropsten) genesis file is now bundled with augur.js.
- Fixed proportion-correct display on closed-market detail page and My Reports page.
- Fixed market result outcome name lookup for closed markets.
- The augur.js penaltyCatchUp sequence now calls closeMarket for all markets associated with the penalized event (instead of just extra markets beyond the first). This may be a temporary fix, depending on how penalizeWrong on-contract method is changed.
November 26, 2016
- Fixed new-branch first-reporting-cycle edge case on collectFees contract: collectFees method now always returns a value.
- Renewed augur.net wildcard SSL certificate (for eth2/3/9000 servers).
- Fixed trade page warning about minLimitPrice/maxLimitPrice types.
- Removed the block number restriction on best bid/ask order tracking on trades contract. Best bid/ask now represent the best prices in any block, for a given market and outcome. (The block number restriction is no longer necessary since the crossed-orders check simply returns an error for the later-arriving order, which is not placed on the book.)
November 25, 2016
- Event IDs retrieved during composite lookups (getMarketInfo, batchGetMarketInfo, and/or getMarketsInfo) are now uniformly formatted.
- Added market/event ID parser method to the static API data of several augur.js wrappers.
- Combined first and second reporting test sequences into one method.
- Default HTTP and websocket hosted node URLs are now attached to the ethrpc (augur.rpc) object / editable by the consumer.
November 24, 2016
- Restructured augur.js tests: moved unit tests and integration tests to separate folders.
- Updated UUID versions and package name in keythereum and augur.js.
- Updated middleware Travis CI builds to only run on updates to the master branch.
- Various fixes to augur UI unit tests.
- Merged Sprinkle’s mega-PRs! (These include fixes/improvements made over the past week.)
November 23, 2016
- Added the ability to auto-populate a trade ticket by selecting any order present in either the outcomes list or order book.
- Expanded test coverage of the Augur API buy, sell, and shortAsk trade methods.
November 22, 2016
- Visual indication of ‘own’ orders within a market outcome’s order book.
- Improved min/max bound handling for both shares and limit price when creating a trade order.
- Auto highlight behavior change to order book on market view.
- Improvements to the scalar share denomination label handling.
- General improvements to Augur.js trade unit tests.
- Improved test coverage of Augur.js ‘buy’ method.
- Added test coverage for the Augur.js ‘sendReputation’ method.
November 21, 2016
- Expanded and refined test coverage of the place trade action.
- Updated and added additional test coverage related to the market data and outcome trade components.
- Continued styling improvements to the market view.
- Bug fix related to the counts presented in both the header and footer navigational items.
- Improved state handling surrounding the outcome trade side selection.
- Safari and Mobile Safari specific UI fixes.
- Expanded and added additional selector shape coverage for market data and outcome trade selectors respectively.
November 18, 2016
- General responsive improvments including:
- Improvements to market view components to be fully responsive.
- Improvements to the markets view compoenents’ existing responsiveness.
- Various miscellaneous UI responsiveness adjustments + improvements.
- Improved UX of header and footer navigation.
- Inclusion of additonal swipe event to handle show/hide of side bar.
November 17, 2016
- The trades contract now tracks the best bid and ask price within each block, and the buy/sell functions on the buy & sell shares contract verifies that incoming orders do not cross any previous orders in the same block. (That is, it makes sure that bids do not exceed the best ask price and vice versa.) If a make that would result in a crossed order is found, the later arriving order is not created, and an appropriate error message is relayed to the user.
- Better handling of mobile touch events, especially pertaining to nav reveal/hide swipe events.
- Additional responsive UI improvements.
- Expanded and refined testing coverage of the short sell trading functionality.
As always, feel free to reach out with questions, comments or concerns and check back next week for our most recent progress.
– The Augur Team