Why I Should Have Seen The Bitcoin Burst Coming and Why It Just Doesn’t Matter

  • Why I Should Have Seen The Bitcoin Burst Coming and Why It Just Doesn’t Matter

    Bitcoin is one hell of an investment, for anyone in the world to use. You don’t need a brokerage account, or need to reside in Western culture and have a special insider connection to benefit from it. One just needs to get educated in its capabilities and inherent value (That’s right. I said its inherent value!) and you’ll understand. Or maybe you’ll succumb to “human nature,” and just get greedy? It really matters not. Bitcoin remains.

    Late last year, I did predict that Bitcoin would pass $1000 USD last week, and most likely pass $1100 as well. Now is not the time for pats on the back, actually I’m here to admonish myself. I should have made one more prediction of Bitcoin’s eventual market correction. Michael Jordan once said ‘You miss 100>#/b### of the shots you do not take.” I missed that one. There are reasons, or excuses, as to why. Here's a couple, off the top of my head.

    The first one that comes to mind is I really didn’t care enough to think that far ahead. I’m not a day trader or a short-term Bitcoin player. I’m in it for life, so the price on a daily basis only matters so much to me. I don’t take it personally when Bitcoin price falls, and I don’t suffer from euphoria when it takes off. I actually want the price to remain low just so I can selfishly buy more. Also, I know that Bitcoin price will not say at $800-900 for more than a couple of months, at the most, so again, it is not a big deal to me that warrants much hand-wringing. Bitcoin has proven to be 'upwardly volatile.

    Before I start rambling, let me get to why I should have looked a little deeper into Bitcoin history, and used it as my guide, as those who do not learn from history tend to repeat it. Bitcoin price was going to boom and bust anyway, as Bitcoin has plummetted each of the last three Januarys and in 2014 it dropped like a rock in the first week of February. Bitcoin lost about $150 USD in value due to the collapse of Mt. Gox.

    January of 2015 saw the market correction bottom out well south of $200 USD, right about where Bitcoin was valued before the bubble formed, in the fall of 2013. It ended the year trading for more than twice that value. January of 2016 saw the wrath of the Mike ‘Hearnicane’ as Hearn made his departure from the inner workings of Bitcoin a very public matter. Again, Bitcoin ‘beat the street’ by year’s end. And of course we have last week’s events. Why did it happen this time? Some say the market was fearful and jumped into the ‘safe haven’ of Bitcoin as a shelter for some speculated global economic downturn. Perhaps.

    In the end, it’s all speculation to me, and I’d be lying if I said I had a good read on why people are dumping ANY investment that was the world’s best-performing currency for two years in a row. Seems pretty stupid to me, but what do I know. I just knew when to get in, and I know enough not to get out, regardless of external market forces.

    And when BTC is trading at $1500, $1800, or even $2000 later this year, there will be a lot of ‘Nervous Nellies’ who will be suffering from ‘Seller’s Remorse’ for abandoning ship, for reasons I do not know, or care to understand. Bitcoin is not for those with weak stomachs. Only the strong survive in the digital ecosystem.

    I guess all I can really say about this dip in the market is ‘Thanks!’ Just more BTC for me. In my mind, I win either way. Hopefully, you may also adopt an equally positive and abundant attitude towards “The Future of Money.” Maybe you can see how it clearly beats the alternative?

    Why don’t we make this easy? This December, expect a ‘bull run,’ and a year from now expect another bust cycle. Sorry to spoil the surprise, for those of you who missed the last three of entry-level Bitcoin market analysis. If you are a Bitcoin day trader, this may come in handy. For myself, not so much.

    What is see the point in casting shade in Bitcoin’s direction? Just because of a drop in the price, for not much of a good reason? Did Bitcoin do something wrong here?

    Selling this investment, after it’s performance over the last three years, says much more about the seller than it does the digital currency, don’t you think?

    This reminds of an old favorite movie of mine from 1980 called Meatballs. Bill Murray can explain my feelings better than I can on this issue. Bill, take it away….

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